Conclusions
The SCIC’s “jihad” in Somalia has been brought to an abrupt halt and with it
the concern that this could grow into a wider conflict that might spread beyond
Somalia’s borders. What remains is to eradicate the hardcore remnants that fled
to the southern port town of Kismayo, on to the old Al-Ittihad base at Ras
Kamboni and have now been attempting to infiltrate into Kenya. Prompt and
decisive action is needed to catch them and bring the Al-Ittihad/SCIC saga to
an appropriate and final end. Ethiopia has demonstrated the seriousness of its
commitment to defend itself and its territory when it becomes necessary. That
is an important lesson to enable living in peace in a rough neighbourhood
The rise in Somalia of the “Supreme Council of the Islamic Courts” (SCIC) a new
form of the armed extremist group, Al-Ittihad Al-Islamiya, and the rapid
expansion of its militias across southern and central Somalia, poses
significant threats to the security of the neighboring countries, particularly
Ethiopia and Kenya. The Al-Ittihad leadership, reportedly linked to Al-Qaeda,
is believed to have played a significant role in past terrorist attacks in both
countries.
The SCIC, however, had its own internal problems that it failed to resolve. One
such problem was its clan composition. Its membership, almost entirely from
Hawiye sub-clans, facilitated its spread throughout most of the Hawiye homeland
with little fighting required. But this same factor made it difficult for it to
expand further. The northeast and the northwest, regions inhabited by different
clans that have largely avoided the chronic turmoil of central and southern
Somalia, made it clear that they were prepared to fight any invasion of their
territories by the SCIC militias.
This, together with the armed resistance to the SCIC of Qeybdiid’s Habir-Gidir
Saad militia, brought an abrupt halt to the northward expansion of the SCIC. It
also demonstrated that the SCIC could not claim the support of all the Hawiye
sub-clans. There were alternatives, which could encourage others to challenge
the SCIC. And then there was Mohammed Dheere, with potential to mobilize some
subclans of the Abgal. This put added pressure on the SCIC to push its jihadist
credentials. No one really knew what it might attempt next, but on 21 December
2006, after agreeing with an EU envoy to pursue a ceasefire and negotiations,
the SCIC again declared war.
That was a serious miscalculation on their part. This, reportedly followed by a
further cross-border incursion into Ethiopian territory, appears to have tipped
the balance. On 24 December, Ethiopia finally took action, and after seven days
on the run, the SCIC abandoned its last stronghold under cover of darkness. The
SCIC no longer exists as an effective force, although some of its remnants have
gone back to join their subclan militias in Mogadishu and need to found and
disarmed.
The establishment of sustainable peace in Somalia in the foreseeable future,
will require a significant effort on the part of those concerned, to strengthen
the TFG to a degree that can enable it to effectively control its territory and
disarm the various armed factions, including the remnants of the SCIC. It also
needs the prompt putting in place of a comprehensive DDR program for all armed
groups not forming part of the TFG’s security forces. This being the case, the
IGAD states and the international community with interests in regional and
human security need to carefully weigh their options and assess the possible
opportunities to assist the TFG to become an effective governing body.
Among others, addressing the basic issues of sustainable livelihoods in Somalia
will need to be undertaken through forms of regional economic integration. The
key requirements for this include improved infrastructure to provide reliable
access to transport, water and affordable energy. In particular, the
rehabilitation of the country’s internal roads and their interconnection with
those of the neighboring countries could open the way to increased trade,
economic growth and poverty reduction. For example, road interconnection could
both enhance trade between the two countries and enable Ethiopia to use Somali
ports to the economic benefit of both countries.
The ongoing oil price crisis makes affordable energy a key problem faced by
countries that like Somalia depend on oil fired generation of the electricity
they need to build alternatives livelihoods. But this could be addressed by
interconnection with Ethiopia’s electricity grid to enable it to purchase much
cheaper hydroelectricity, a solution already agreed by Djibouti, Kenya and
Sudan.
This draws attention to the important opportunities that exist for joint
development of the hydroelectric potential of the Shabelle and Gennale-Juba
river basins in the context of infrastructure-led regional economic
integration. Multi-purpose dams on the Shabelle and Gennale-Juba rivers could
meet the hydroelectric power needs of both countries, enhance their irrigation
potential, and prevent the recurrent floods that from time to time devastate
large areas of the lower Shabelle and Gennale-Juba basins, leading to serious
loss of life, property and increasing poverty. For example, the recent floods
in the Shabelle and Juba basins that have displaced hundreds of thousands of
people in central and southern Somalia, dropping them deeper into
destitution.
It is a situation that demands substantial investment in the integrated
development of the region’s land and water resources, and creating sustainable
alternative livelihoods. The cooperative development of the shared water
resources of this drought disaster-prone region comprising central and southern
Somalia, and the Ethiopian Somali region offers considerable potential to
rehabilitate the livelihoods of their populations and put them on the path to
sustainable development and sustainable peace. Both countries and their
neighbors have a great deal to gain from this.
Endnotes
1 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061224/ap_on_re_af/somalia
2 Seifulaziz Milas, "Causes and Consequences of the Somalia Conflict," UNICEF Somalia, Nairobi, 1994, rev. Feb. 1997.
3 Ibid.
4 Mohamed Hatem Al-Atawy, Nilopolitics: A Hydrological Regime 1870-1990, AUC Press, Cairo, 1996, pp44-52, cited in Tom Hockley, “Nile Valley Case Study, Saferworld.
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid.
7 Informal conversations with a former senior officer of Somali National Army, Mogadishu, October, 1992.
8 Mohamed Hatem Al-Atawy, Nilopolitics: A Hydrological Regime 1870-1990, AUC Press, Cairo, 1996, pp44-52, cited in Tom Hockley, “Nile Valley Case Study, Saferworld.
9 Ibid.
10 Report of the Monitoring Group, p.41, para.208.
11 UN Monitors’ report, cited in “Adding fuel to fire,” The Reporter, 18 November, 2006.
12 Ibid.
13 UN Monitors’ report p.41, para.210.
14 Ibid.
